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2011 Spot Play Results: 32 Plays - 7W -7P-4S 2010 Spot Play Results: 57 plays - 17W - 13P - 7S For 2010: 30% winners, 65% in the money. Return on $2 straight bets was $147.60 vs. $114 bet for a gain of 30%. Selections made for Fast track (unless noted). We almost never play M/L favorites and usually play >5/1. See below for past year. Oct. 1. Staying at Del with Do It Well in the first at 6/1. Has the speed to run with these and looks like a value bet in a dismal race. Coach Hawley will be a heavy favorite but the drop in claiming price to get 3 pounds off may indicate he's still not fully recovered from his long time off. Result; We were right about Coach Hawley who unfortunately broke down and had to be vanned off. Our pick didn't run a lick in a race won by a 54/1 shot who came off the pace and won in a driving finish with a winless jockey. With all the rain, it would seem position on the track is a dominant factor these days. Sept. 24. At Del for a rainy day. Taking a chance on Groovy Max in the 2nd at 10/1. Quit badly and lost by 30 lengths in debut. Now going up in class in a longer race for high % trainer. Had a recent swift work 4 days ago. Also playing Man Of Danger in the 3rd at 5/1. Has the speed, shortens up and likes it wet. Result; Groovy was outrun the entire race. In hindsite, the trainer's object was to learn the wet track for his favorite in the next race. That one ran a nice race but our pick Man Of Danger got into the lead and won by a couple. Paid $20.20. Sept. 10. At Del Park for owner's day. Going with 12/1 shot Sound Effect in the 3rd. Closed well in lone start and had a brisk work for this. Also playing Not Abroad in the 6th at 6/1. He was beaten by race's fav by 1/2 L in last race but gets better post here. Should be good value in this. And going with Hobo Ridge at 7/2 in the 7th if the race stays on Turf. Should handle the softer turf and distance than others. Results; Sound Effect ran 2nd. Paid $6.60 for place. Not Abroad won easily beating 3/5 shot. Paid $8.60. Hobo Ridge was scratched when off the turf. Aug. 27. We'll try to make ammends for bad picks last week with a pick on the Travers S, 12th at Sar. So far almost all major 3yo races have been won by longshots. And we're longshot players anyway so we're going with Raison d'Etat at 10/1 but he'll probably be higher. Tr. Mott is getting hot and the horse has been training up a storm since a decent Sar race. He's bred to go long and may be coming into his own. The favorite Stay Thirsty looks like the type who needs everything to go his way which usually doesn't happen in this race. Shackleford has been marvelous throughout the series of 3yo stakes but may be a little short for the 1 1/4 miles. Coil is well regarded and ran super last out in the Jim Dandy. He won but didn't blow by Shackleford or Ruler On Ice gaining less than 1/2 length on each through the entire stretch. Ruler On Ice looks like he's better on an off track. Result; Stay Thirsty was the real deal, at least here at Saratoga where his trainer makes magic. Mot's horse didn't do much. Aug. 20. At Sar with two plays today. Royal Blessing in the 3rd at 5/1. First out on the turf with solid turf breeding and works. Gets Dominguez. Inglorious at 8/1 in the featured 10th. Ships in from WO after quick work. Has shown she can get the distance and should be cometitive here as a value bet. Result; Two bad picks here. Alos had Royal Blessing in the wrng race. Not our day! July 16. At Del with In The Juice in the 9th at 8/1. Beat favorite here a year ago and looks sharp again. Result; Ran 2nd. Gaining, nosed by 3 inches in what appeared a dead heat with even-money favorite. July 9. Going with Swing Music at 8/1 in the 6th at Del. The closer in a speed-filled field. Result; Late scratch. July 2. At Del with Cane Candy in the 3rd as third choice at 7/2. Should be strongest down the lane. Result; Won. Collared leader late and drew off. Paid $6.80. Jun 18. Playing Ben's Cat (7/2) in the 9th at Parx. Wet conditions should favor his strong finish in a speed-filled race. Result; Ran 2nd. Closed well and just missed at 9/2. June 11. At Bel with Rule By Night in the 7th at 6/1. Needed last and gets hot-rider Dominguez. Looks like good value here. See 2011 Belmont for our Belmont S. analysis and picks. Result; Rule By Night was scratched due to sea of mud. Our Belmont picks were done in by the mud. June 4. We're undeterred by a first time out loss last week and staying Del with another firster Globo De Oro in the 4th at 6/1. Trainer is solid with this kind on Turf. Gets top rider. Result; Ran out in poor effort. Looks like we need a refresher course in first time starters. May 28. At Del with first time starter Depreciable in the 8th. Looks well prepped with swift am works and gets fine gate rider. 10/1. Result; Didn't show the a.m. speed and ran out. May 21. At Pim for the Preakness. Our spot play is Safety Check at 9/2 in the 8th. Came back with a solid effort in his first out this year and should relish the shorter distance. See 2011 Preakness for our Preakness analysis, selections and results. Result; Safety Check ran a dismal race. Shackleford, our Preakness pick, won and paid $27.20. May 7. At CD for the Derby and playing two spot plays also. Going with Shotgun Gulch in the 7th at 6/1. Is the closer in a speed-filled field. Pletcher has been losing with heavy favorite, front runners recently and that may prove the case here. But going with Pletcher's Akenite in the 9th at 5/1. Distance suits and works at CD have been swift. Results; Shotgun Gulch ran 5th closing well late. Akenite won in driving finish and Paid $28.60. See 2011 KY Derby for our Derby analysis, selections and results. Apr. 30. Playing the Derby Trial at CD and two at Del Park opening day. We're going with Indian Writer at 8/1 in the Trail (8th). Swift works after 6th in SA Derby. The heavy favorite Travelin Man seems like the kind getting upset in these 3yo races. Pletcher may be easing back on the supplements in the light of the Rick Dutrow situation. At Del, we're on Graceontour in the 6th. Looking for him to wire these at 4/1 (3rd choice) following very swift work. Also going with Olympic Pegasus at 4/1 in the 7th. High % trainer at Philly; should be even higher at Del. Also 3rd choice. Results; Indian Writer ran 4th despite beating Pletcher's favorite, Graceontour ran 2nd in good effort and Olympic Pegasus ran 3rd. Apr. 23. At AQ with Justin Phillip in the Jerome S.(9th) at 5/1. Shows signs of liking it wet and should be where footing is best. Result; Ran 3rd at 6/1 after getting into the lead in the stretch. Looked like the winner but faded outside vs. inside runners. Apr. 16. Playing Deputy Daney in the 7th at CT. Third choice at 7/2, he has position advantage in this short race over outside favorites. Also going with Tizway at 6/1 in the million dollar Classic there (10th) if Maragh makes it in from Keeneland. Was catching the favorite in his first out for the year. The Factor looks set to romp in the AR Derby at OP but his odds will be too low to play. We also look for Elite Alex to work his way into the KY Derby picture with a solid race here with Borel. This is the kind of horse Borel thrives with in the KY Derby. Results; Deputy Daney was scratched in the terrible weather. Tizway ran a fine race to end up 3rd. Borel is still looking for a live one for the Derby. Apr. 9. Playing Ducale in the 3rd at AQ. Third choice at 4/1, he should find the pace to his liking and finish well. No point in playing against Uncle Mo in the Wood as almost half the runners are ex-claimers. NYRA should be concerned when a $million race has this bad a field. The IL Derby is another with a field of limited talent but we'll give Sour a try at 6/1. Is bred to go long and may be ready for a step up in performance for top connections. Results; Ducale ran 2nd at 5/1. Just missed in tight photo. Sour ran 4th in decent effort but not enough late. Apr. 2. At GP with Drosselmeyer (5/1) in the 9th - Gr. 3 Skip Away. Ran 4th to favorite last out at Tam, his first race since winning the Belmont S. in June. Should pick it up here with Gomez on board. Most are conceding the FL Derby to Soldat who should be heavily backed after his smashing win in the Fountain of Youth. But the track was playing to speed on the rail that day and he took advantage of that. There's a ton of speed in here and we're looking forward to the race shape favoring Dialed In. He's listed at 2/1 but we believe the odds will be much better because he ran 2nd in a 5 horse race at 1/5 last out and Pletcher and R. Dutrow have live runners here. Results; Drosselmeyer looked like a winner when he made a bold move into the stretch but flattened out badly to run 5th. Not a real good training job here. Dialed In came from last to run down 60/1 shot and paid $7.80. The other contenders with Derby aspirations failed to live up to their hopes. At this point, Dialed In is clearly a serious threat to Uncle Mo and The Factor for the Derby. Mar 26. Going foreign with picks at Dubai using two US shippers. I Want Revenge at 5/1 in the 3rd. This was the KY Derby favorite in 2009 before getting injured just before the race. He ran a solid race in the GR. 1 Donn at GP and his connections must think he's back in shape for this. R. Dutrow is much better away from home these days; the farther, the better. Then we're on Euroears at 9/2 in the $2 mil 5th. Mike Smith rode Kinsale King in his last but switches to Euroears for this. He ran a dynamite race last out after being switched to Baffert. Kinsdale won this race last year and is the favorite here. Posted 3/25. Results; I Want Revenge pressed the lead much of the way but faded when the real running started. Euroears led until late; caught by 4/5 shot. Ran 2nd. Mar 19. Playing the Rebel Stakes (10th) at OP with 12/1 shot Alternation. Faces several tigers from California but is a closer with a fast pace assured. We always question Cal runners coming off Bute for the first time. Has improved in every race and is training swiftly. Worth a shot at high odds. Result; Late scratch. Mar 12. At Parx with Olympic Pegasus in the 5th. 3rd choice at 7/2. Trainer does well with this kind. Result; Won easily. Bet down. Paid $3.80. Mar. 5. At AQ for the Gotham, race 10. Going with 5/2 shot Toby's Corner. On the improve and odds should hold because Plether's favorite will be overbet. Also playing Unbridled Grit at 8/1 in the 6th. Favorable race setup here. Result; Both races won by heavy favs. Toby fought bit early, went wide, ran 3rd. Watch for next. Unb. Grit ran 4th. Off to slow start, 4 wide around both turns. Feb. 26. At GP with Best Act in the 11th. Dominguez hangs around for last race on 8/1 shot. Should love the turf. Result; Dominguez should have known better. Feb. 12. Going with Washington's Rules in the Sam Davis at Tampa (10th). Position advantage, brisk work, closes well and good value at 9/2. Result; Ran out in poor effort. McPeek didn't have this one ready for significant effort. Feb. 5. At GP with Morning Line in the Gr. 1 Donn Hcp.(10th). A nice winner for us last year beating First Dude. JV sticks here from Pletcher entry. This is a horse who doesn't want to get beaten. Only 3/1 ML but very competitive race so odds should hold up. Result; Ran 2nd in solid effort. Fought for lead on inside, took over, caught by 2 others at top of the stretch, outgamed them, race won be closer in middle of the track. Paid $5 for place. Jan. 29. Going with Samzilla in the 8th at Parx. Disappointed in last but finishes well and should pick it up here. 5/1. Result; Races cancelled. No play. Jan. 15. Staying at Parx with a 12/1 shot Put Me First in the 8th. Good value here off the claim and training well in NY. Result; Ran out in dismal effort. Trainer must have been trying to get horse claimed. Jan 8, 2011. Using the 8/1 shot Maloof Magic in the 9th at Parx as our first pick of the new year. Should relish shorter distance and off track. Result; Broke slow, rushed up into contention and faded. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ |