The 2010 KY Derby.

Overall. With the scratching of Eskendereya, this year's Derby looks like an intractable race to handicap. The prep races leading up to the Derby were void of quality racing, not the kind one would expect on the Derby trail. For example, the Florida Derby was won in slower time than an ordinary race for 3yo fillies at the same distance just 2 races before. That's hardly something to develop enthusiasm for any of the competitors in that event. In essence,none of the preps were run in solid times and that leads to questions about all. In addition a number of trainers have multiple entires with Todd Pletcher leading the pack with 4 runners. Baffert, Zito, Sadler and Maker all have 2 each. The reason for stressing this is no trainer with multiple entries has won this race since 8 years ago when Baffert won with a horse he had just acquired. The stress of training for this race and the race itself seems to lead to training issues when a trainer has more than one entrant.

In addition to this consideration, this year's race brings together many runners that have done well on non-dirt surfaces and some that have only run with Bute. The change to a dirt track and the absence of Bute are hard to gauge. We are always suspicious of horses coming off Bute because it may be harmful to horses to begin with and is known to mask possible medications that are not allowed. The 2010 race also seems to have more than its share of front runners which will inevitably lead to most of them not making the distance ending up far from the winner. Additionally, the usual problems of handicaping this race applies. It tests not only the physical and athletic skills of horse (and rider) but also their emotional state. With 150,000+ screaming, well-fortified fans running around and large entourages associated with owners, trainers and media trained on the entrants for a week or more; the race boils down to one who can stand up to the overall rigors of not only the race but the stress right up to the starting bell. The race itself has 20 young horses some of whom will get hammered and slammed and all are running an untried longer distance. At some point in this race we can expect at least 3-4 horses will be slammed around. Immature horses don't have the foundation or experience to cope with the Derby happenings. Oh and yes there's also a threat of strong thunderstorms with heavy rains for the afternoon adding yet another complication to picking the winner.

One at a time. Because There's something to dislike about every horse we'll do something this year we've not done before; look at each horse and pick the least bad. So we'll look at the main contenders first. Lookin at Lucky is the 3/1 choice. He's a horse that has a history of getting slammed around, has been off Bute and on dirt only once, won't actually be 3yo for another 4 weeks, starts from post 1 and can expect to be crowded much of the race and has a multi-entry trainer. We'll pass at 3/1. Sidney's Candy is second choice at 5/1 having beaten an unlucky Lucky in his last race. This one has never run on dirt or off Bute. He's the apparent speed in the race but breaks from the 20 post and will be hard pressed by speedsters inside especially Baffet's Conveyance. He's also with a multi-entry trainer. We'll pass as well on Conveyance (12/1) because of that expected speed duel. There are 3 horses at 10/1. Ice Box who won the aformentioned dismal FL Derby and is trained by multi-entry Zito. He does come from behind which may be in his favor here. We'll pass on him as far as winning. Awesome Act and Pletcher's filly Devil May Care are the other 10/1 shots. Awesome Act was run over by Eskendereya in his last and didn't look like he wanted to go longer. His trainer just arrived having been stuck in Europe by volcanic ash. With the commotion surrounding this race, we'll forget about him. Devil May Care passed up the Oaks to run here so Pletcher probably thinks she's his best shot. She's coming up to the race well and probably likes the mud. To win - no; but may get a piece. Pletcher's other three, Super Saver 15/1, Mission Impazzible 20/1, and Discreetly Mine 30/1 all seem likely to be burned by the strongly-contested pace and wind up far back just as 15 of his prior Derby 24 entrants have done. Lets keep going. American Lion and Line of David are 30/1 shots. They seem destined to be ground into the ground by the pace. Then we have 50/1 shots Make Music to Me whose speed figures could only be described as unimpressive, ditto for Backtalk and Homeboykris who hasn't raced since February.

Who's left? That leaves us with Noble's Promise at 12/1, Stately Vision at at 30/1, Dean's Kitten at 50/1, Paddy O'Prado at 20/1 and Dublin at 12/1. Since we've passed on all the others our pick will come from these. Noble's Promise is the value in the race. He gave Lookin at Lucky all he can handle in 3 consecutive races, has run on dirt and is training well. But we have a concern with Robby Albatrado moving to 50/1 shot Dean's Kitten. Willie Martinez resumes riding Noble's Promise but we have to question why a trainer would prefer him to Albarado in a race such as the Derby. Dublin is going well these days, doesn't need to be on or near the lead, is Lukas's only entry and has a shot in this. Paddy O'Prado was our long shot choice for the Bluegrass and looked like an easy winner but was run down late by 40/1 Stately Vision. That one came down the middle of the lane and may have gotten into kind of a slip stream to blow by Paddy well inside of him. Or, Desormeaux may have moved too soon on Paddy. It's also possible Stately is just maturing as his 3yo birthday is Derby day. Our guess is Paddy is better and Stately found the best way home that day. Paddy who has been working up a storm has the speed; it's easy to question though whether he can make the distance. Dean's Kitten is the mystery horse in the race. He's basically a turfer but he's got some fine works on Churchill's training track, he comes from out of it which should be an advantage in this race, showed mark improvment in his last and Albarado switched to him for some reason. But his trainer is another multi-entry one so we'll give him a shot but not as the winner. There you have it; the whole handicapping process in a nutshell. From a handicapping perspective, this race comes as close to being unbettable as any we've seen in a while but here goes anyway. We are placing a lot on Albarado's judgement. Were it not for that, we'd be on Noble's Promise.

Our picks: 1) Paddy O'Prado 2) Dean's Kitten 3) Dublin 4) Devil May Care 5) Ice Box

Result; 1) Super Saver 2) Ice Box 3) Paddy O'Prado 4) Make Music for Me 5) Noble's Promise.

All things considered, our analysis was reasonably on target for such an umpredicatable race. Lookin at Lucky got hammered out of contention, Sidney's Candy and Coveyance ran themselves and others into the ground, Noble's Promise was the value bet in the race as he beat Lookin at Lucky after three close calls with 25/1 vs. 7/1 odds, and our choice Paddy was right there running 3rd only 2 1/2 back. He had a chance to win but just didn't have enough late. Dublin was a decent 7th and Stately Vision 8th. The only one we thought would do better was Dean's Kitten who ran 14th. So the Albarado factor let us down but that's racing. How Super Saver managed the win and at only 8/1 is a testimonial to Calvin Borel who also beat our spot play for the day by a head. This was the first race he had not been contesting or on the lead early which we assumed would be the case and the basis for dismissing him. The Derby is a strange place to try something new but it worked which is the proof of the pudding.

It's onto the Preakness.


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