Overall.
This year's Derby looks like an intractable race to handicap. The prep races leading up to the Derby were void of quality racing, not the kind one would expect on the Derby trail. For example, the Florida Derby was won in ordinary time on a day when the track was featuring fast races. That's hardly something to develop enthusiasm for any of the competitors in that event. In essence, none of the preps with the exception of the AR Derby were run in solid times and that leads to questions about all. Further, only a few of these horses are seasoned with most having run only a few times and in small fields.
In addition to this consideration, this year's race brings together many runners that have done well on non-dirt surfaces and a few that have only run on Bute. The change to a dirt track and the absence of Bute are hard to gauge. We are always suspicious of horses just coming off Bute before showing they can do without it because it may be harmful to horses to begin with and may be more forgiving of pain during the part of the this race requiring the most stress.
The 2011 race also seems to have its full share of front runners. This will inevitably lead to most of them not making the distance and ending up far from the winner.
Additionally, the usual problems of handicaping this race applies. It tests not only the physical and athletic skills of horse (and rider) but also their emotional state. With 150,000+ screaming, well-fortified fans running around and large entourages associated with owners, trainers and media trained on the entrants for a week or more; the race boils down to one who can stand up to the overall rigors of not only the race but the stress right up to the starting bell.
The race itself has 20 young horses some of whom will get hammered and slammed and all are running an untried longer distance. At some point in this race we can expect at least 3-4 horses will be slammed around. Immature horses don't have the foundation or experience to cope with the Derby happenings.
Another complication is some of these horses are entered just for the thrill of their owners being at the Derby and hoping for a gift from heaven.
Oh and yes there's also a threat of thunderstorms with some rain for the afternoon adding yet another factor to worry about. But the show must go on and we'll give it a shot.

One at a time.
Because there's something to dislike about every horse we'll look at them all, pick out the ones we consider contenders and and pick the least bad. Uncle Mo was an annointed champion before the dismal race he ran in the Wood. His connections seem to think that was a gastrointestinal malady which he is now over. Even so, we're tossing him out and truly wonder if he'll be a starter. Uncle Mo needs to be at or near the pace. There's a number in here with the same need. In general, we think they'll all be done in and fade badly when their lungs are giving out the last 1/8th. This should include Comma To The Top, Pants On Fire, Decisive Moment, Shackleford and J P's Gusto. Soldat also falls in this group as his connections tried to rate him in the FL Derby where he ran out with little late interest. They'll change tactics and use him more early. We also toss out Mucho Macho Man and Twice the Appeal because they were late May and June foals. They'll find it harder to compete with others who are several months older at a time when a few months means a lot. Then there are the 'Bute only' horses. These are Midnight Interlude and Comma To The Top. The latter is a front runner we've already tossed and while Midnight Interlude seems sharp, the Bute question and his lack of seasoning (he's faced only a total of 28 horses in his 4 races) makes us leary. He'll probably be overbet anyway because of the Baffert factor. Of the remainer, Watch Me Go, Santiva, Derby Kitten and Stay Thirsty haven't shown enough to let us believe they'll be factors at the end.

Our contenders.
Dialed In is the favorite in the race. He had trouble reeling in Shackleford in the FL Derby. It was a speed favoring track but Dialed In looked like he could go by easily but just made it. While he should be engaged late here, he doesn't seem to have much of an explosive kick and isn't well seasoned with only 4 races. Brilliant Speed came late to win the Bluegrass but will have to chase a much faster pace here and may have to be rolling when most tired. His only races on dirt were awful but that was early in his career. Archarcharch ran a dismal race on an off track. Other than that, he seems competitive here. Twinspired made it into the race when several defected late. He got caught in the Bluegrass and should have the same happen here. Master Of Hounds is the mystery horse in the race. He hasn't run on dirt but had a smashing race at 1 3/16 on all-weather at Dubai in his first out this year. He ships well and was the favorite at CD in the BC Juvenile last Nov. when he ran 6th but beaten by only 3 lengths. O'Brien won the Belmont with such a shipper and gets Gomez here. Animal Kingdom is lightly raced with no dirt experience. He's been well supported in all 4 starts and seems bred for a distance. Nehro closes well and just missed running down Archarcharch in the AR Derby. His last two point him out as a contender here.

Our picks:
1) Master Of Hounds. He'll be at high odds in a season where mystery horses have dominated. So - why not take a shot at 30/1?
2) Nehro (6/1) looks like he'll be running well late. He should avoid trouble starting from the 19 post.
3) Brilliant Speed (30/1) seems on the improve and may like it wet.
4) Archarcharch (10/1) gets compromised by his inside post but should get into it and fade late.
5) Dialed In (4/1) should make a run but without making a real impact.
6) Animal Kingdom (30/1) in case you're playing the Super High 5 and need a hedge.

Good luck with your bets. Let's hope all runners and jockeys come home safe and sounds.

Result: 1) Animal Kingdom 2) Nehro 3) Mucho Macho Man 4) Shackleford 5) Master Of Hounds 6) Santiva.
All in all, we had a pretty good feel for the race. Three of the top 5 finishers came from our contenders list of 6 including the winner (21/1) and place finisher (9/1). 5 of the first 8 finishers were from our contenders list. In contrast, only 1 of the last 11 was one of our contenders and that was Archarcharch who was injured and had to be vanned off. Happily, the injury was limited and not life-threatening.
Animal Kingdom was the first winner of the Derby since 1918 to have as few as 4 starts prior to the race so we don't feel badly about not having him as our top choice.The pace was quite slow for a Derby and that lessened the chances of Master Of Hounds, Nehro and Dialed In.
Two horses surprised us. Mucho Macho Man ran a huge race for a June 15 foal. By comparison, Animal Kingdom was a Mar. 20 foal and Nehro was born Feb. 25. So Mucho gave away 3-4 months in age. Assuming Mucho stays healthy, he should be a real factor in he later 3yo classics such as the Haskell and Travers and the Breeder's Cup Classic could also be in the picture. Shackleford also surprised by holding on a long way. This could have been because of the slow pace but he certainly fought back when challenged.
On to the Preakness for the next leg. There could be some new runners show up but we doubt one will be Uncle Mo. Maybe The Factor, though.


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