Analysis and picks for Belmont Stakes 2011.

While somewhat slower than usual, the KY Derby and Preakness were fine races with two worthy winners who are now contesting the Belmont Stakes. Both connections are quite happy with their charges and each believe they have a shot at two thirds of the Triple Crown plus 3yo horse of the year. Derby and Preakness winners don't usually face off for a variety of reasons but this should be a good rematch. Yet, it isn't clear either will wind up with the winning share and despite their sterling efforts, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford will face some stiff competition, as we see it.

It's been an interesting year for the 3yo Classic races. Essentially all the Stake races on the 'road-to-the-Triple Crown' plus both the Ky Derby and Preakness were won by double-digit longshots with the exception of the FL Derby. In that one, the 5/2 shot Dialed In caught the then 59/1 Shackleford in the shadow of the wire. Since that race Dialed In hasn't amounted to much and Shackleford has prospered. Dialed In isn't in the Belmont but Shackleford is plus 7 others all of whom finished in the top 8 spots in the Ky Derby except one. When that many longshots win these races, the field is apparently not that strong and differences in track condition, weather and racing luck become important factors. Obviously, with 7 of the top finishers, the Ky Derby is the place to look for an important key to such differences when handicapping this Belmont.

That day, every dirt race was won by horses closing well down the middle of the track except for one. That lone race was won by a 3/5 prohibitive favorite in a short race. We also note that even Calvin Borel who won the past 3 Derbies by skimming the rail from start to finish had his horse 7 wide in the stretch for this Derby. So we look and see who profited by being outside and who was compromised by being inside in the Derby stretch. Animal Kingdom (1st), Nehro (2nd), Mucho Macho Man (3rd), Santiva (6th) and Brilliant Speed (7th) all closed well in the middle of the track. Winding up on the inside were Shackleford (4th) and Master Of Hounds (5th). To our mind Shackleford hung on especially well despite the disadvantage of being inside. Master Of Hounds ran a sterling race. He was on the inside, began to maneuver to the outside nearing the stretch but was blocked and then made a brisk move weaving through traffic and angling back to the inside where he failed to make up more ground while finishing 5th only some 5 lengths from the winner.

We'll look at some other factors. The Belmont is a 1 1/2 mile race on an enormous oval vs. other tracks. It takes a jockey with considerable experience at Belmont to not use his horse too soon, especially in long races. Indeed, Smarty Jones probably would have won the Belmont and Triple Crown when he came undone late and was caught by Birdstone. Smarty was ridden by Stewart Elliot a fine Philly Park jockey and Birdstone by Edgar Prado, a top New York regular. In this case, we worry about Jesus Castenon the rider of Shackleford who will probably be on the lead and need considerable skill in setting the early fractions and then significant patience to go the full distance and finish strong. While a fine rider, Castenon, based for DE/MD/PA races, has very little experience at Belmont. Another aspect to consider is that most US bred horses don't have stamina built into their chemistry and going the extra distance of the Belmont can find them failing. In that regard, Master Of Hounds is from a Sadler's Wells mare, a truly dominant family of stayers in European races. He is bred for the distance. Animal Kingdom also has European breeding from the mare side and should get the distance. From the jockey perspective those with ample Belmont experience are riding Animal Kingdom (Velasquez), Mucho Macho Man (Dominguez), Master Of Hounds (Gomez), Stay Thirsty (Castellano) and Prime Cut (Prado). There is a concern with Master Of Hounds whose only race on dirt was the KY Derby and just shipped in from Ireland on Tuesday. Yet, Go And Go did that in the 1990 Belmont and won easily. Master Of Hounds also has the advantage of running that fine Ky Derby race following the same pattern. Other factors for consideration are from the Preakness where Animal Kingdom got off to a slow start and while gaining steadily had to make up too much ground to handle Shackleford in the shorter race; and Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe which hurt his chances there. Mucho Macho Man also gets a jockey switch to Belmont's riding leader Ramon Dominguez who just won 6 races on Monday's card. Of the entrants who did not participate in the Ky Derby or Preakness, Prime Cut has shown some nice works and looks set for a decent effort here following his 3rd in the Peter Pan. He's got some European breeding to go along.

Putting It All Together - Master Of Hounds seems like the value bet in the race with morning line odds of 10/1. His Derby-compromised race, breeding, jockey and odds point him out. Animal Kingdom looks like he'll be a factor along with Mucho Macho Man and Nehro. The latter who should be well bet didn't have a very solid workout this week and only made up 2 lengths on Shackleford in the Derby despite his favorable positioning. Shackleford has been solid in these races but we think he will be overbet here. The longer distance coupled with his jockey's inexperience with Belmont's long races could well compromise him here. We would note he was our pick in the Preakness. Based on their nice late moves in the Ky Derby, Santiva and Brilliant Speed could be factors but we tend to discount them here because of their advantageous late positions in that race. Dominguez moved from Stay Thirsty to ride Mucho Macho Man which doesn't seem like a top endorsement for the former. Prime Cut could show some improvement and his brisk workout on June 6 is a good sign. Prado should help.

Picks - 1). Master Of Hounds
2). Animal Kingdom
3) Mucho Macho Man
4) Shackleford
5) Nehro
6) Prime Cut.
Good luck with your bets.

Result:1).Ruler On Ice 2). Stay Thirsty 3). Brilliant Speed 4). Shackleford.
The exceptional muddy conditions and an unfortunate jammed start for Animal Kingdom turned the race over to the rank outsiders. Handicapping this race based on past performances was not an especially useful exercise.

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