Analysis and picks for Belmont Stakes 2009.

Most Belmont Stakes' are not won by deep closers. That and the likelihood Mine That Bird will be overbet has us looking at others who are more likely be in the hunt early. Dunkirk, our Derby choice, got slammed around there and didn't like being splattered with mud. He's bred for the distance, had a very sharp breeze on May 18, saved energy by passing up the Preakness, and gets the stable jockey. He should be good value. If that's not enough, how could you not play Dunkirk on the 65th Anniversary of the Normandy invasion? Gomez moves to Chocolate Candy who also has a style that fits this race. Hollendorfer and Gomez have teamed up with successful long shots in key races several times this year. We like his chance here. Charitable Man looks competitive here but we are put off a bit by the need to keep after him late to capture the Peter Pan. Summer Bird is a 12/1 shot who looks like he is getting his act together. With a major rider change, we like his chances for an in-the-money run. While we can't discount Mine That Bird entirely, we expect him to not have the kind of late speed he has shown in the Derby and Preakness. We are also suspicious of the 2/40 record by his trainer so far this year and think it would be remarkable if he were able to hold a horse together for the time span between the Derby and Belmont.

Picks - 1). Dunkirk 2). Chocolate Candy 3) Summer Bird 4) Charitable Man 5) Mine That Bird. Also, throw $2 on a 6/5 Normandy exacta.

Result: 1) Summer Bird 2) Dunkirk 3) Mine That Bird 4) Charitable Man 5) Luv Gov.

All in all, we grade out with a A- or B+ for this event. Mine That Bird didn't show the final kick he had before and was way overbet. Summer Bird got a big boost from the rider switch which proved decisive the way the race was run. Dunkirk ran a sweet and game race. A case could be made that he may have won if he was not put on the lead and stayed within stiking distance while on the rail. That would have changed the dynamics of the race in his favor. Charitable Man faded late as expected from his need for late urging in his prior and shorter race. Our only disappointment was with Chocolate Candy who proved he probably needs bute, a question for all runners who come from CA and haven't shown much ability to run without it.

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