Analysis and picks for Belmont Stakes 2010.

No Triple Crown possibility this year but still an engaging race to handicap. Ice Box should be a short price having won the Fl Derby and run 2nd in the KY Derby in his last 2 races. Our tendency is to downgrade these efforts somewhat. The FL Derby was an insipid, slow race in which Ice Box just managed to nose out Pleasant Prince. That the latter ran 11th in the Preakness some 18 lengths behind the winner is not very comforting when thinking about Ice Box for this. The 2010 Ky Derby was a troubled, bumper-car race in which almost all horses had some kind of an interrupted effort. That Super Saver, the winner, ran out in the Preakness, as we expected in our Preakness picks, helps us minimise the results of the KY Derby as a strong gage for the Belmont.

Nick Zito has become the Woody Stnvens of the Belmont Stakes. This year he has 2 starters, Ice Box and Fly Down. Fly Down looks to be peaking at just the right time, having easily dusted off the field in the Gr.2 Dwyer. He's well rested, sharp in the morning, bred to go long and our choice to win this. Our 3rd choice in the Preakness, First Dude, who ran 2nd there figures to be prominent throughout this race. We are concerned though that the Preakness took a lot out of him, and with a 1 1/2 mile race here and only 3 weeks in between, we've decided to pass on him. Stately Victor is our choice for place. He dazzled in the Bluegrass, made a huge run at one point in the KY Derby, was slammed around also and held well anyway. Make Music For Me is our pick for 3rd. He made up even more ground than Ice Box in the KY Derby despite being slammed and 8 wide. A real plus is he has given Lookin At Lucky, the Preakness winner, all he could handle in 3 prior races. That one would be the favorite here if he had been entered. One reservation we have on Make Music For Me is the inexperience of jockey Rosario at Belmont. Were it not for that, we may have gone higher with him. To round out the board, we're going with Drosselmeyer for 4th. He had a decent race at Belmont in the Dwyer and Mott makes a jockey change to Mike Smith. That probably means a change in tactic to a late run, the kind Smith specializes in.

Picks - (1). Fly Down 9/2   (2). Stately Victor 15/1   (3). Make Music For Me 10/1   (4). Dosselmeyer 12/1

Result: (1) Drosselmeyer  (2) Fly Down   (3) First Dude   (4) Game on Dude.

Ice Box was not a factor in the race finishing 9th some 12 lengths behind as Drosselmeyer (13/1), Fly Down (6/1) and First Dude put on a stirring finish. We didn't expect the latter to hang on as well as he did but he was game and probably the best all-around 3 yo this year. As we suggested, the 2010 KY Derby was not a race that offered good insight into the ability of this year's crop. It was a trouble-filled race where track position seemed to have been the deciding factor in the result rather than ability. Super Saver ran out in the Preakness and Ice Box ran out here; both were well beaten and not competitive. Nor were the others who ran in the Derby and then returned in the other legs of the Triple Crown.

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