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Overview - Like people who say "if 2 aspirins are good, 4 are better"; the BC races have been extended to two full days. We'll stick with just Saturday's events so we don't spend a lot of time on too many niche races although there are a few truly quality ones on Friday. BC Juvenile Turf. (race 4). Talk about a niche race; this is one. Lightly raced 2 yos on the turf are not our cup of tea. It can be like a bumper car event so we would normally pass on it. Being the BC races and we have to play something, we'll just single Master Of Hounds at 9/2. He's the most experienced in the field with fine connections. How did we do? Master ran 6th by 2 1/2 lengths. Was gaining but too late. BC Sprint. (race 5) The track is playing to speed so far this week and CD will probably have the dirt track pretty fast for Saturday. At this distance and with an expected speedy pace, we like horses that can hold up to longer races as a show of stamina. So we've centered on Big Drama (7/2) and Giralamo (3/1) from the inside. We'll go with Big Drama and hope Coa doesn't take the overland route as he sometimes does. 1) Big Drama 2) Girolama 3) Cash Refund at 20/1, 4) Warrior's Reward at 12/1. The latter is a deep closer who would have been our choice if we felt closers were in play - but we don't. How did we do? Big Drama won. Paid $12.40. BC Turf Sprint. (race 6) Another one with a mad dash at the start. Silver Timber (4/1) is our pick here. He disappoined us last year, losing by 4, but this seems to be his best distance and he's coming to hand well as is Grand Adventure a 12/1 longshot. He'll be compromised by his outside post but his recent works are impressive. Central City (12/1) could be the early speed and should get a share. Chamberlain Bridge (6/1) will be coming late but will need to find a way through from the 1 post. We tend to downgrade several here who did well at SA last year in this because they were on Bute and we have trouble with horses who haven't shown they can perform at top level without it. 1) Silver Timber 2) Grand Adventure 3) Central City 4) Chamberlain Bridge. How did we do? Chamberlain Bridge won and paid $15.80. Central City ran 2nd. BC Juvenile. (race 7) The stage is set for a showdown between Boys At Tosconova and Uncle MO, two hyped ones who have run a grand total of 5 races in all. Boys has beaten all of 12 horses in his 3 races and Mo has beaten 14 in his two. At expected low odds for these and they're both stretching out, we'll revert to our long shot tendency and go with the 30/1 Murjan. Why not? He's unbeaten, a half brother to Boys At Toscanova. His times have been excellent in the about * distances he's run and we expect him to get the distance with Tabasco Cat in his lineage. Mo's stablemate Stay Thirsty at 6/1 looks like good value and was a close 2nd to Boys in the Hopeful. We'll go with Boys At Tosconova at 5/2 for third and J.B.'s Thunder(10/1) for 4th. Uncle Mo hasn't shown us he can survive a tight speed duel yet and we'll pass on him until he does. 1) Murjan 2) Stay Thirsty 3) Boys At Tosconova 4) J.B.'s Gusto. How did we do? Badly. Uncle Mo was for real and ran off with the race. Boys was second. Murjan was last and never in it. BC Mile Turf.(race 8) Well we've picked Goldikova (6/5) two years in a row and were not disappointed. She's now back for a third and Freddy Head says she's at her peak. We're on her again. She is a great race mare and every bit as deserving of praise as Zenyatta. Paco Boy (6/1) has been close to Goldikova but can't quite stay with her. Gio Ponti (4/1) picked this race instead of the Classic. Turf rather than dirt was probably behind that decision but he fits here for a part. He always gives his best. Court Vision ( 12/1) ran well in this race last year and we expect a repeat. 1) Goldikova 2) Paco Boy 3) Gio Ponti 4) Court Vision. How did we do? Goldikova won in a remarkable performance. Paid $4.60. Gio Ponti was second. Paco Boy was 4th and Court Vision 5th. BC Dirt Mile. (race 9) Morning Line (7/2) is our choice. He refused to lose in last at longer distance, has racked up solid speed figures and is working exceptionally well for this. Tizway has a helpful inside post and also looks at the top of his game. Mad Flatter (12/1) should help with the pace and can hang around at this distance with Here Comes Ben (6/1) moving late to finish on the board. 1) Morning Line 2) Tizway 3) Mad Flatter 4) Here Comes Ben. How did we do? Morning Line lost the bob at the wire to run second to a 47/1 shot. Paid $7.20 to place. BC Turf 1 1/2 Miles (race 10) Arc horses usually don't do well at the Breeder's Cup but Trainer Stoute does. He brings his Arc winner Workforce (7/5) with a month to recover from that event. We're with him. Any kind of a repeat of Arc form takes this easily. While we're at it, we might as well stick with the 4th place Arc finisher Behkabad (9/5) for second. Both should find an 8 horse race a bit easier than the 19 horse Arc. Al Khali (10/1) is peaking and should be able to lead a long way with a comfortable pace. Winchester (8/1) is a closer who should make the board. 1) Workforce 2) Behkabad 3) Al Khali 4) Winchester. How did we do? Workforce was scratched. Behkebad was 3rd and Winchester 4th. BC Classic. (race 11) We'll start our diatribe here with kudos for the Moss's. They are enlightened owners who are truly trying to help the racing game. Were there more owners like them willing to forego early breeding revenues, the sport wouldn't be in the shape it now finds itself. They should be awarded 'Owners of the decade!' That notwithstanding, we see Zenyatta as 8/5 to finish off the board rather than the morning line 8/5 favorite. She is a great deep closer. Running on synthetics at SA favors her style. Yes, she has won at OP but with speed figures much less than needed here and with short fields. So far, the CD meet is not kindly to deep closers and we can't expect that for this race. Looking back at last year's BC Classic, she came from way back to get by 5 horses late. With the kind of dirt track she'll be facing in this, that wouldn't have happened. Smith usually leaves her with too much to do. He'll have a decision to make here. If he keeps her closer to the lead early that will lessen her late charge and if he keeps her well back, she'll find some strong ones tough to reach. Looking At Lucky (6/1) gets the outside post. He's been banged around in his only 3 losses. That post should be helpful and we expect a top performance to take this event. Quality Road, a marvelous athletic horse, will get a lot of betting action. But we can't get over him coughing up an unchallenged lead in the 1 1/8 Whitney to Blame. QR may not be a 1 1/4 miler so we'll pass on him also. Blame (9/2) should have say in the outcome. We think Lucky will get the jump and hold him off. Musket Man (20/1) is a tough, tough campaigner with competitive speed figures. It wouldn't surprise to see him 2nd. We'll round out the board with Fly Down (15/1) who seems to be on the improve and shows some stout works on the tr.t at Sar for this. 1) Looking At Lucky 2) Blame 3) Musket Man 4) Fly Down. We hope we'rwe wrong and Zenyatta does finish up her grand run in style. But handicapping is handicapping. How did we do? Zenyatta ran a great race to come from left field to lose narrowly to Blame as Smith left her too much to do. Fly Down was 3rd and Looking At Lucky 4th. Blame paid $12.40. All in all we didn't have a bad day with 3 wins from our 1st and second choices and an extremely narrow loss on Morning Line. These are tough races to pick with horses coming from all over and running under different conditions than usual, as proven again this year. Return to Home page |